i found these two articles in South Africa's Sunday Times to be
somewhat refreshing and worth reading as opposed to most of the
sensational pieces floating over the internet and other newspapers.

Complicated times over here - but we're living through them... somehow!



From http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Insight/Article.aspx?id=414960

Peering through Zimbabwe's layers of deception

18 March 2007
Mohau Pheko


I have become jaded over the Zimbabwe issue.

I've been reading Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins,
which describes how highly paid professionals lurk in the shadows to
cheat countries around the world out of trillions of dollars. When
they emerge, their modus operandi includes overthrowing heads of
state, rigged elections, manufactured terrorist attacks, payoffs, sex,
murder and extortion.

It has me wondering whether recent events in Harare are not the
makings of an over- productive mastermind trying , through make-
believe scenarios, to evoke sympathy and outrage for what may actually
be seeds of deception.

Frankly, the reported situation in Zimbabwe has become the perfect
script for a spy movie.

On October 12 2005, Morgan Tsvangirai precipitated a fatal split in
his six-year-old opposition when he stormed out of a Movement for
Democratic Change meeting, prompting the faction led by the party's
deputy secretary, Gibson Sibanda, to suspend him .

In return, Tsvangirai supporters suspended Sibanda and members of his
faction. Stunned by their party leader's dishonesty and dictatorial
tendencies, the MDC found itself divided.

It has to be said that Tsvangirai's bizarre behaviour that day left
many formerly enthusiastic supporters baffled. Why, some question, was
he committed to boycotting the election? Why would he not countenance
an alternative plan? Why was he dogmatic and unyielding in his view,
prepared to trample on the MDC's constitution, lie to the media and
even declare to the national council, "If the party breaks, so be it"?
Why has he not done anything since to reconcile the two opposing
factions? Could a secret meeting with Zanu-PF kingmaker Solomon Mujuru
— husband of vice-president Joyce Mujuru — have changed his mind?

In the tradition of the espionage movie, conspiracy theories abound.
The Gibson Sibanda faction has been accused of secretly conniving with
President Thabo Mbeki to undermine Tsvangirai. On the other hand,
there are those who believe that President Robert Mugabe and
Tsvangirai are colluding on a blueprint that is mutually beneficial.
There are accusations that Tsvangirai has been colluding with Zanu- PF
in a plot by Mujuru's husband, betraying the MDC by pulling out of
senate elections in exchange for undisclosed political rewards.

If one links these events, recent statements by various leaders of the
ruling Zanu-PF make perfect sense. The government of Zimbabwe declares
its innocence in recent events by implicating opposition forces within
the MDC for the latest calamity. In essence, it is said the opposition
came with pangas to the recent march to deal with each other. In the
interest of public safety, the police had to intervene to stop the
altercation.

In the mind of many, this ongoing war within the opposition in
Zimbabwe is a perfect cover for the country's Central Intelligence
Organisation to meticulously deepen divisions within the opposition,
and undermine any credible opposition or threat to the ruling party.

The government's response to recent events is consistent with the
words of Emmerson Mnangagwa, shortly after the deployment of the Fifth
Brigade in Mata beleland North in 1983. As minister of State Security
responsible for the CIO, he stated: "Blessed are they who will follow
the path of the government law, for their days on earth shall be
increased. But woe to those who will choose the path of collaboration
with dissidents for we will certainly shorten their stay on earth."

In trying to discover who is culpable in the Zimbabwe crisis, Mugabe's
statement is instructive: "I would like to see an African country that
has gone this length in those directions ... abiding by the rule of
law, accepting the reign of human rights and establishing democracy.
You also have nongovernmental organisations here telling them [the
British government] the opposite of what we are. In the meantime, they
are enjoying the freedom of organising our people without hindrance."

It is clear from this that Mugabe perceives accusations levelled
against his government as baseless and unfounded.

As the plot thickens, the sad ending is that after 26 years as
distinguished architects of their own liberation, Zimbabweans pin
their hopes on the retirement of one man. Even more disappointing,
conversations in Zimbabwe have centred on dubious characters for
leadership. It is time Zimbabwe ended the personality cult in
politics. It is time to pause and not blindly follow popular and
charismatic personalities who have already shown that they are
seriously flawed as leaders. For outsiders to support and intervene in
Zimbabwe, solidarity needs to be built on a vision of a new Zimbabwe.

The lesson to be learnt from Zimbabwe is that a construction of
democracy, where the majority vote and the minority elites govern,
does not lend itself to participatory democracy where citizens can
recall their leaders. Perhaps the real lesson is, presidents do not
assume power through an exam. They are the product of the choices made
by the governed.

It is incumbent upon all Zimbabweans to elevate the level of debate to
provide a vision of their new society. This will reinforce solidarity
in the region in such a way that those who find themselves in wrong
jobs after 26 years of rule will be conscious of the pressure to step
aside in the interest of a new national vision and thereby end the
seeds of deception.

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From http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/PrintEdition/Insight/Article.aspx?id=415095

Inaction lets Zimbabwe crisis play itself out

18 March 2007
Francis Kornegay


Second opinion Francis Kornegay says SA and the region have little
choice but to let Robert Mugabe's country stew

The arrest and brutal detention of Movement for Democratic Change
leader Morgan Tsvangirai and his colleagues have refocused the
spotlight on South Africa's "quiet diplomacy" towards Zimbabwe.

The assumption, as reflected in Mondli Makhanya's recent commentary
"The joke will be on us if we don't wake up to Zimbabwe's pain" (March
4), is that diplomacy is not working, though what may be the real
source of frustration is Pretoria's lack of effective public diplomacy
regarding Zimbabwe.

This becomes especially apparent during episodes of overt repression
as witnessed over the past week, though the South African government
did counsel Harare on the need to observe the rule of law and the
rights of all concerned.

If diplomacy has failed, perhaps a closer look at what is unfolding in
Zimbabwe is in order, accompanied by suggestions of what more South
Africa and/or the Southern African Development Community (SADC) should
undertake.

At the same time, it is useful to note observations about the recent
Franco-African summit to which Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe was
not invited and at which his fellow heads of state made not a peep.
The loud and clear message from their silence was that they had
"washed their hands" of and were not willing to go to bat for their
tarnished icon.

Silence can be golden and, in the Taoist tradition of "dynamic
inaction", the best approach to certain intractable situations. Here,
South Africa and the SADC are not alone. Witness the equally lengthy
stalemates between China-North Korea, the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations and Burma or even the US and Cuba.

Given the fact that the military option is ruled out and cutting off
electricity and a border blockade are equally unpalatable for what
these would convey to our neighbours — the return of the neighbourhood
bully — a protracted crisis-management containment strategy has been
the only realistic option.

Pretoria has gone the extra mile in searching for a negotiated
internal settlement to Zimbabwe's crisis, to no avail. As this
diplomacy interacted with the dynamics within and between the ruling
Zanu-PF and the opposition MDC, there was less and less scope within
which to work such a settlement. Both parties became internally
divided. But these internal divisions, especially within Zanu-PF, are
what may eventually bear fruit as the country's economic meltdown,
underneath the apparently loosening grip of Mugabe, seems to be
pushing the party's rival factions towards the exit as they search for
a way out of Zimbabwe's predicament.

Once the negotiating phase of quiet diplomacy had run its course, the
only thing Pretoria and the SADC could do was sit back and, in effect,
let Zimbabwe stew in its own juices.

South Africa and the SADC must prepare for whatever emerges from this
current "dynamic inaction" phase of quiet diplomacy, which allows
Zanu-PF's internal contradictions to play themselves out towards the
long-awaited "endgame".

As a result of the growing flood of desperate Zimbabweans streaming
into Zambia — not to mention South Africa, Botswana and Malawi —
Zambian Foreign Minister Mundia Sikatana has suggested that the next
SADC summit in August take up the Zimbabwean crisis. This may signal
the need for a more highly profiled diplomacy on Pretoria's part.

Sikatana's suggestion that the SADC facilitate dialogue between
Zimbabwe and the European Union could complement some of the
diplomatic outreach being reportedly attempted by some among Zanu-PF's
divided elite. His suggestion would also be in line with the
International Crisis Group's recommendation that Pretoria engage the
EU and the US in devising a strategy to resolve Zimbabwe's crisis.

Rather than hammering Pretoria without knowing all the facts about
what is and is not happening between South Africa and Zimbabwe, the
media need to focus on breaking developments, with the aim of
stimulating constructive dialogue on Zimbabwe's future and the role
that South Africa and others should play to ensure an internally and
regionally stabilising post-Mugabe transition.


Francis Kornegay is senior researcher in international affairs at the
Centre for Policy Studies